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  5. ›RFP 25ISD017 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenario Modeling…

California Air Resources Board·California

RFP 25ISD017 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenario Modeling and Evaluation

Closes 4/20/2026$1.8M – $2.2MRequest for Proposal
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Description

California Air Resources Board (CARB) is seeking a qualified contractor to evaluate the state’s progress toward its greenhouse‑gas (GHG) reduction targets (SB 32 and AB 1279) and to develop an updated GHG‑Reduction Scenario that meets the 2045 carbon‑neutrality goal. The effort includes updating modeling tools, creating reference and reduction scenarios, conducting uncertainty and risk analyses, evaluating up to 28 AB 197 measures, producing a Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) status report, and delivering ongoing technical reports, graphics, and stakeholder‑engagement workshops. The contract is fixed‑price, valued up to $2.2 million, with a 24‑month performance period and a possible one‑year renewal option (removed in later addenda). • Update CARB’s scenario‑modeling tools with the latest inventory, population, fleet, and technology data. • Build and document both a baseline Reference Scenario and a forward‑looking GHG‑Reduction Scenario covering 2022‑2045, including uncertainty quantification. • Perform measure‑by‑measure evaluation of up to 28 climate‑policy measures, assessing emissions, cost, health, economic, and workforce impacts. • Deliver a CCAP status report, high‑resolution graphics, a user guide for the modeling tool, and present findings at up to four CARB workshops. • All deliverables become State property; any generative‑AI use that materially impacts performance must be disclosed.

Attached files

Contact

Jessie Foust

[email protected]

Key dates

Opened
3/20/2026
Questions due
3/30/2026
Closes
4/20/2026
Projected award
6/25/2026
Duration
24 months

Last updated

Details

Type
Request for Proposal
Industry
Consulting Services
NAICS
541330
Solicitation №
RFP 25ISD017

Budget estimate

$1,800,000 – $2,200,000

The solicitation caps the contract at $2.2 million for the 24‑month effort. Assuming a typical profit margin for professional services of 5‑15 %, the net earnings for the contractor could range from roughly $1.8 million (low‑margin) to the full $2.2 million ceiling (high‑margin). Factors influencing the final amount include the exact cost proposal, any optional renewal, and the extent of proprietary tool licensing required.

AI estimate from the solicitation

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